How does the “Transit metropolises” pilot policy change urban residents' public transportation travel? Evidence from China

Since the launch of the “Transit Metropolis” Pilot Policy (TMPP), its effect evaluation on public transportation travel (PTT) is still insufficient. Utilising a panel dataset spanning 260 prefecture-level cities in China from 2001 to 2020, this study employs a propensity score matching–time-varying difference-in-difference (PSM–time-varying DID) model to assess the effects of TMPP, unravelling its mechanisms, and further exploring heterogeneities across diverse city characteristics. The critical findings are shown as below. Firstly, the TMPP exerts a short-term advocating effect on the PTT of residents while fostering long-term diversification in travel modes. However, as the TMPP matures, conventional buses lose their attractiveness, signalling a shift in travelling mode preferences. Secondly, the effectiveness of TMPP is moderated by economic, demographic, and climatic factors. Cities with higher economic prosperity and larger populations exhibit a significant TMPP impact, while extreme climatic conditions alleviate the adverse effects of TMPP on conventional bus attractiveness. Thirdly, this study highlights the significant heterogeneity in TMPP effects across cities and regions, necessitating tailored strategies for constructing “Transit Metropolises”. These findings provide valuable insights for broadening the application scope of “Transit Metropolis” theory, scaling TMPP implementation, guiding transportation development strategies, and offering policymakers actionable references to promote the sustainable evolution of city transit systems.