Public transit in transition: The “new normal” or a return to normal?

The Covid-19 pandemic led to precipitous reductions in transit ridership. As the pandemic has subsided, transit use has remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Understanding how to attract riders to transit is critical to sustain transit viability in the long term. In the first part of this paper, we evaluate who had returned to transit in Fall 2022, factors affecting the decision to use transit, and intentions for future transit use using a panel survey collected in two Canadian cities as the pandemic was waning. Most transit riders indicated that the pandemic no longer affected their daily lives but that its effects were here to stay. While many transit riders had fully returned to transit, about half intended to use transit less frequently than they did before the pandemic and about 10 % did not intend to return at all. Pandemic-era factors such as telecommuting and increased vehicle access contributed to declining ridership. At the same time, high quality transit service continued to be an important determinant of the choice to use transit regardless of when transit riders returned or whether they planned to return. The findings of the Canadian survey echo results from prior research conducted in Canada and elsewhere, raising questions about transit agency efforts to reverse declining ridership and the potential for long-lasting changes to Canadian public transit systems. In the second part of this study, we track Canadian transit providers' efforts to sustain the viability of transit systems during and after the pandemic using trends in transit service, use, costs, and revenue. In Canada a large influx of federal funds initially buffered the financial impacts of the pandemic. Trends suggest that this has allowed transit providers to maintain or minimally reduce transit service to try to reverse ridership declines. Transit agencies experienced a gradual but partial recovery of ridership, differing from growing ridership observed from 2011 to 2019. Additionally, as federal funds declined some reported facing funding gaps. Persistent reductions in ridership, fare recovery, and operational efficiencies highlight ongoing challenges to transit agencies. Taken together, our analysis highlights the potential for long-lasting change in transit ridership and transit service provision models in Canada. In light of the critical mobility that transit systems provide for those who rely on it, transit agencies and policy makers may seek to return to normal by securing sustained funding and rebuilding ridership through service improvements and service updates that meet the needs of today's riders and coordinated land use planning. For some agencies, the altered transit landscape may prompt consideration of new operational models, including vehicle right-sizing and innovative shared mobility models. The best path forward depends on each region's context and objectives.