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Sustainability transitions in energy–metal systems: the systemic role of maritime logistics and cross-market connectedness

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  • Ceyhun, Gökçe Çiçek
  • Tarkun, Savaş

Abstract

This study examines the hidden circulation mechanisms underpinning the global green transition by analyzing asymmetric information flows across energy shipping, commodity, renewable, and climate risk indices. Using an Asymmetric External Connectedness TVP-VAR model, it reveals that the structure of information transmission shifts with market regimes. During optimistic periods, fossil-based shipping (BDTI) forms a “dirty energy core” that transmits upward signals to transition metals and renewable energy equities, indicating a growth cycle still dependent on carbon-intensive logistics. Under stress regimes, the Transition Risk Index (TRI) becomes the dominant transmitter, generating a “risk-centered core” that channels systemic contagion across markets. These findings suggest that the green transition is sustained by legacy transport and information infrastructures. True decarbonization, therefore, requires not only transforming how energy is produced but also rerouting how it circulates through global financial and logistical networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceyhun, Gökçe Çiçek & Tarkun, Savaş, 2026. "Sustainability transitions in energy–metal systems: the systemic role of maritime logistics and cross-market connectedness," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:210:y:2026:i:c:s1366554526001730
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2026.104834
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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