The reverse side of online shopping: examining sociodemographic and built-environment determinants of delivery returns

The rapid growth of e-commerce has created new transportation challenges through increased product returns, yet the behavioral determinants of delivery return patterns remain understudied from a consumer-centric perspective. This research develops a comprehensive econometric framework to analyze online shopping frequency, delivery return rates, and the realized distribution of returns across channels using data from the 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). We employ a multivariate modeling approach integrating probit ordered-response and probit fractional response models to examine three interconnected outcomes: (1) frequency of online goods purchases, (2) proportion of online purchases returned, and (3) distribution of returns across four channels (home pickup, post office, Amazon drop-off, and physical store). The modeling framework accounts for causal relationships between outcomes while controlling for unobserved factors that lead to correlations across the three dimensions just listed. Results reveal significant sociodemographic heterogeneity in online purchasing and return behavior. Women, teleworkers, individuals with higher formal education, and those with higher incomes tend to exhibit increased e-commerce engagement. Older adults and zero-vehicle households, in contrast, have lower online purchase participation and return accessibility. Built environment factors significantly influence return behaviors, with rural residents showing reduced return rates and limited access to Amazon drop-off locations, while individuals residing in areas with high retail density exhibit increased use of Amazon drop-off and physical store returns. The analysis reveals causal relationships where higher online shopping frequency is associated with increased return rates, and both shopping frequency and return rates jointly influence return channel choices. These findings have important implications for transportation planning and urban logistics, highlighting the need for policies that ensure equitable return access and the importance of integrating e-commerce return trips into travel demand models.