Substitution and user heterogeneity in electric moped and bike sharing for first- and last-mile transit in Taiwan

In Taiwan, where motorcycle ownership is widespread, the rapid growth of electric moped sharing (EMS) and bike-sharing services for first- and last-mile connectivity has intensified competition among micromobility modes and public transport. Understanding the substitution dynamics between these modes is critical for cities pursuing sustainable mobility transitions while curbing private vehicle dependency. This study applies a hybrid ICLV-MIMIC-LCL modeling framework to analyze stated preference data from 547 Taipei metro users, integrating observed travel behavior with latent psychological factors. Three distinct user segments were identified: time- and cost-sensitive bike-sharing users, convenience-oriented bus users, and flexible micromobility users. Results indicate that dedicated EMS parking primarily draws demand from buses (−5.37 %) rather than bike-sharing (−3.89 %). Dedicated EMS parking emerges as a key driver of adoption, enabling a meaningful modal shift from private motorcycles to shared micromobility. This shift offers greater sustainability benefits than policies that merely redistribute demand among public transport modes. The findings provide segment-specific policy insights for EMS and bike-sharing positioning, targeted parking infrastructure investment, and cost-sensitive subsidy design, supporting enhanced first- and last-mile connectivity and Net Zero Emissions goals in moped-dominant Asian cities.