From early adopters to the mass market: policy implications of heterogeneous value of time in drone delivery

As drone delivery emerges as a solution to strained urban freight systems, successful implementation requires navigating the complex trade-offs between logistical efficiency and public acceptance. This study investigates the determinants of consumer adoption and estimates the heterogeneous Value of Delivery Time (VoDT) to inform policy and service design. Using a web-based stated choice experiment in Seoul, South Korea, we analyze the impact of level-of-service attributes alongside critical operational constraints, including weather, noise, and autonomy, as well as social influences. A hybrid latent class mixed logit model segments consumers into “early adopters” and “late adopters” based on their attitudes toward innovation. The results reveal a stark behavioral divide: early adopters, driven by novelty, exhibit a high willingness to pay for speed (particularly for electronics) and tolerate operational uncertainties. In contrast, late adopters, the mass market, are risk-averse, highly sensitive to noise above 70 dB, and deterred by negative social reviews. We estimate VoDT ranging from 1.49 to 9.92 USD per hour, varying significantly by adopter class and commodity type. These findings suggest that a “one-size-fits-all” regulatory approach is insufficient. Instead, policymakers and planners must manage a transition from permissive frameworks facilitating early adoption to strict reliability and noise standards required for mass societal acceptance.