Accelerating electric vehicle adoption in India: A System Dynamics approach considering purchase and charging infrastructure subsidies

Policymakers worldwide increasingly view faster adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) as an important pathway to reducing transport-related greenhouse gas emissions. However, EV adoption is shaped by interactions among various stakeholders and by a range of economic, technological, infrastructural, and perceptual factors. To examine this dynamic process, we develop a System Dynamics (SD) model comprising five interlinked modules—the Vehicle Adoption Dynamics Module, EV Utility and Market Share Module, Cost and Market Evolution Module, Charging Infrastructure Module, and subsidy module that considers two policy levers: a purchase subsidy and a charging infrastructure subsidy. Using India’s EV market as the empirical setting, we examine the relative effectiveness of these two policy instruments under 14 scenarios. Our results show that under the Business-as-Usual scenario, adoption is initially driven by affordability and later by convenience, especially through reduced range anxiety and improved service support. While purchase subsidies generate stronger short-run gains by overcoming the early affordability barrier, their marginal impact declines over time, and they impose a higher fiscal burden. In contrast, charging infrastructure subsidies are more cost-efficient, producing stronger long-run adoption gains by improving charging availability, reducing range anxiety, and supporting ecosystem development. Overall, a phased composite policy mix performs better than both standalone interventions and extreme front-loaded support, indicating that early affordability support combined with sustained infrastructure investment is the most effective and fiscally prudent strategy for accelerating EV adoption. These findings offer practical guidance for policymakers designing EV-promotion strategies that are both effective and fiscally prudent.