The impact of port cluster spatial structure on shipping network resilience

Against the backdrop of complex disturbances in the global shipping system, port clusters, as key nodes in regional transportation and the global shipping network, play a crucial role in shaping shipping network resilience through their spatial structure. This study develops a “structure-resilience” analysis framework and a dynamic response model tailored to port clusters. It systematically evaluates the spatial structural evolution characteristics of China’s five major port clusters from 2015 to 2022, as well as the underlying mechanisms influencing shipping network resilience. Results show that: (1) The spatial configuration of China’s port clusters increasingly reflects balanced stability, with a growing tendency toward multi-center development. However, regional disparities persist: the Yangtze River Delta consistently maintains a stable multi-center structure, while the Pearl River Delta and Bohai Rim alternate between multi- and single-center patterns. In contrast, the southeast and southwest coastal regions continue to exhibit single-center structures. (2) The five major port clusters display distinct levels of shipping network resilience. The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta demonstrate relatively strong resilience; the Bohai Rim shows moderate resilience; and the Southeast and Southwest coastal clusters exhibit comparatively weak resilience. (3) The influence of spatial structure on shipping network resilience shows notable temporal lag and persistence, along with clear spatial heterogeneity. Multi-centre port clusters maintain a more stable and positive association with network resilience, whereas strongly single-centre clusters exhibit a much weaker—and in some periods even negative—effect. This study contributes novel insights into the evaluation of shipping network resilience and provides theoretical foundations and strategic guidance for enhancing the security and sustainable development of maritime supply chains.