Travel mode dissonance, multimodality and transitions between modality styles: A four-year longitudinal study in the Netherlands

Understanding factors that drive transitions between modality styles is essential for promoting sustainable mobility. While prior studies have focused on external contextual changes, unexplained variation points to additional underlying factors. This study investigates travel mode dissonance—the mismatch between mode preferences and actual use—as a potential psychological driver of modality style transitions. Using data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel (MPN) and applying Latent Transition Analysis (LTA), five modality styles are identified: Low Mobility, Car Driver, Cyclist, Driver + Cyclist, and Active + Public Transport. Results show that higher degrees of dissonance are consistently associated with an increased probability of transitioning from a certain modality style to a different one. Further disaggregation of dissonance by travel purpose—mandatory, maintenance, and discretionary—shows that individuals adjust their modality styles differently in response to dissonance across travel purposes. Specifically, when individuals experience greater dissonance with maintenance and discretionary travel, they are more inclined to substitute the non-preferred mode with alternatives. In contrast, when they experience greater dissonance with mandatory travel, they are more likely to reduce such travel altogether rather than substitute the non-preferred mode. These findings highlight the importance of considering psychological mechanisms alongside contextual factors in explaining modality style transitions. They also suggest that interventions to promote sustainable modal shifts should account for variation in mode preferences by travel purpose.