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Transport substitution and travel resilience under bad weather: evidence from high-speed rail and air travel in China

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Xinlei
  • Wu, Shuping
  • Zheng, Longfei

Abstract

The growing frequency of extreme weather events presents challenges for transportation resilience. The substitution of different travel modes can enhance travel resilience under bad weather conditions. Using a novel dataset of nearly 3.7 billion high-speed rail (HSR) booking records in China from 2014 to 2016, this study estimates the extent to which HSR services are a substitute for air travel during bad weather conditions. Combining a difference identification strategy with high-dimensional fixed effects, we find that 2% of HSR trips (approximately 1.827 million trips) traveling over two hours can be attributed to air trips shifted to HSR during bad weather conditions. This weather-induced substitution is more pronounced for 2–7 h HSR trips and occurs mainly on weekdays and long holidays. The resilience of HSR to bad weather has generated welfare gains of approximately 151.61 to 400.13 million RMB for intercity travelers during 2014–2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Xinlei & Wu, Shuping & Zheng, Longfei, 2026. "Transport substitution and travel resilience under bad weather: evidence from high-speed rail and air travel in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:211:y:2026:i:c:s096585642600234x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2026.105093
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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