A welfare-based evaluation framework for UAVs in last-mile delivery: economic assessment and roadmap design

As a disruptive logistics delivery solution, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is now transitioning from conceptual model to practical application. Its large-scale deployment will influence social welfare across multiple dimensions, rendering it an issue that cannot be overlooked in policy formulation. This study establishes a welfare analysis framework for last-mile delivery, systematically comparing UAVs with traditional ground vehicles in terms of cost, efficiency, and externalities. By aggregating these components, the study evaluates net welfare impact resulting from the transition in last-mile delivery methods. The analysis identifies delivery distance, labor wages, and battery costs as major factors affecting welfare of utilizing UAVs in last-mile delivery. Based on an analysis of 31 provinces in China, regions with higher labor wages and short delivery distances are more suitable for prioritizing the promotion of UAV logistics. Applying a net welfare gain criterion for substituting traditional ground vehicles with UAVs in last-mile delivery, this study projects that 24 out of 31 provinces in China will be ready for large-scale adoption of UAV delivery by 2035. This highlights the 2030–2035 period as a strategic policy window for promoting UAV delivery. Based on estimates using 2024 express delivery volumes, this transition will bring China net welfare gains of 3.96 billion USD by 2030 and 26.30 billion USD by 2060. However, this transition is accompanied by increased energy consumption and emissions, which calls for close attention from policymakers.