Urban informal transportation and gentrification: empirical evidence from motorcycle taxis in Bangkok, Thailand

This study investigated the role of informal motorcycle taxi services in shaping residential and commercial gentrification patterns around rail stations in Bangkok. Although Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) has been widely associated with displacement and spatial inequality, limited research has examined how informal transportation systems intersect with these processes in the context of the Global South. Through propensity score and Mahalanobis distance matching with stratified analysis, this study estimates the average treatment effect of motorcycle taxi presence on gentrification outcomes across 250-m and 500-m rail station buffers. Although the baseline results revealed no significant citywide effects, the stratified analyses revealed geographical heterogeneity. First, in inner-city, transit-rich areas, motorcycle taxi presence is positively associated with both residential and commercial gentrification, suggesting that these services may reinforce accessibility-driven redevelopment. In contrast, in peripheral areas with limited transit coverage, motorcycle taxis mitigate residential gentrification by enhancing the mobility of low-income residents and supporting informal agglomerations. Second, in areas at medium distances from rail stations, motorcycle taxi presence was linked to increased commercial gentrification and decreased residential gentrification. Third, motorcycle taxis have significantly positive associations with commercial gentrification in areas of older rail stations but insignificant in those of younger rail stations. These patterns reveal the dual and context-sensitive role of informal transportation in urban transformation. This study contributes to debates on informality, accessibility, and gentrification in Global South contexts and calls for TOD frameworks to incorporate informal mobility systems as both infrastructural assets and tools for inclusive urban development.