Survival of shared (battery) swapping-mode electric vehicle industry: does manufacturer’s attitude matter?

Shared (battery) swapping-mode electric vehicles (SSEVs) offer a promising alternative to private vehicle ownership, yet the associated complex stakeholder dynamics would influence their adoption. This study analytically examines how heterogeneous electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers’ strategic attitudes (neutral, positive, negative) shape SSEV market development and proposes mechanisms to align incentives across the ecosystem. By building an analytical model, we first analyze how manufacturers’ attitudes impact SSEV operators’ decisions and profitability. We then develop a cooperative contract to achieve a win–win situation for the profits of EV manufacturers and SSEV operators. Finally, to maximize social welfare, we compare the effects of the price subsidy policy and the service cost subsidy policy. Key insights include: (1) SSEV operators should adjust the service level based on the placement rate of SSEVs. (2) Negative attitudes of manufacturers hinder the growth of the SSEV industry; when consumer sensitivity to battery charging time is sufficiently low, both manufacturer and operator profits improve if the attitude of manufacturers is positive. (3) Signing a cooperative contract can avoid the negative impact of manufacturers’ negative attitudes on consumer adoption of SSEVs and increase the profit of both parties. (4) When implementing a government subsidy to lift social welfare, price subsidies are more effective than service cost subsidies.