IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v209y2026ics096585642600162x.html

New metrics and estimates of travel time reliability using large passive datasets

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Shihan
  • Spissu, Erika
  • Cirillo, Cinzia

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive modeling framework and empirical analysis of the Value of Travel Time (VOT) and the Value of Travel Time Reliability (VOR) on Express Lanes. Using a large dataset from transponder-recorded trips, complemented by vehicle probe data, we explore the variability of travel time across different dimensions: day-to-day, intra-day, and intra-peak. Our study spans two distinct timeframes: pre-pandemic (January 2020 to mid-March 2020) and during the pandemic (mid-March 2020 to the end of May 2020), providing insights into travel behavior under both routine and unpredictable conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Shihan & Spissu, Erika & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2026. "New metrics and estimates of travel time reliability using large passive datasets," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:209:y:2026:i:c:s096585642600162x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2026.105021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096585642600162X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2026.105021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghosh, Arindam, 2001. "Valuing Time and Reliability: Commuters' Mode Choice from a Real Time Congestion Pricing Experiment," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9fz0z9kq, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    3. Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A., 2005. "Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 279-293, May.
    4. Liu, Henry X. & Recker, Will & Chen, Anthony, 2004. "Uncovering the contribution of travel time reliability to dynamic route choice using real-time loop data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 435-453, July.
    5. Liu, Henry X. & He, Xiaozheng & Recker, Will, 2007. "Estimation of the time-dependency of values of travel time and its reliability from loop detector data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 448-461, May.
    6. Brownstone, David & Ghosh, Arindam & Golob, Thomas F. & Kazimi, Camilla & Van Amelsfort, Dirk, 2003. "Drivers' willingness-to-pay to reduce travel time: evidence from the San Diego I-15 congestion pricing project," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 373-387, May.
    7. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
    8. Eric Kroes & Paul Koster & Stefanie Peer, 2018. "A practical method to estimate the benefits of improved road network reliability: an application to departing air passengers," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(5), pages 1433-1448, September.
    9. Devarasetty, Prem Chand & Burris, Mark & Douglass Shaw, W., 2012. "The value of travel time and reliability-evidence from a stated preference survey and actual usage," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1227-1240.
    10. Kenneth A. Small & Clifford Winston & Jia Yan, 2005. "Uncovering the Distribution of Motorists' Preferences for Travel Time and Reliability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1367-1382, July.
    11. Hossan, Md Sakoat & Asgari, Hamidreza & Jin, Xia, 2016. "Investigating preference heterogeneity in Value of Time (VOT) and Value of Reliability (VOR) estimation for managed lanes," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 638-649.
    12. Gao, Song & Frejinger, Emma & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2011. "Cognitive cost in route choice with real-time information: An exploratory analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 916-926, November.
    13. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sardesai, Rupali, 2006. "The impact of stop-making and travel time reliability on commute mode choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 709-730, November.
    14. Yan, Jia, 2002. "Heterogeneity in Motorists' Preferences for Time Travel and Time Reliability: Empirical Findings from Multiple Survey Data Sets and Its Policy Implications," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7nk0v3kj, University of California Transportation Center.
    15. Lin, Shihan & Spissu, Erika & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2024. "An analysis of travel behavior and willingness to pay on Express Lanes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    16. Harry M. Markowitz, 1999. "The Early History of Portfolio Theory: 1600–1960," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 5-16, July.
    17. W. Burke Jackson & James V. Jucker, 1982. "An Empirical Study of Travel Time Variability and Travel Choice Behavior," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 460-475, November.
    18. Rahul Goel & Mark Burris, 2012. "Hot lane policies and their implications," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(6), pages 1019-1033, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dixit, Vinayak V. & Harb, Rami C. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Rutström, Elisabet E., 2015. "Measuring risk aversion to guide transportation policy: Contexts, incentives, and respondents," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 15-34.
    2. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    3. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    4. Lin, Shihan & Spissu, Erika & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2025. "Variations in value of travel time savings on express lanes: Evidence from passively collected data," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    5. Agarwal, Sumit & Diao, Mi & Keppo, Jussi & Sing, Tien Foo, 2020. "Preferences of public transit commuters: Evidence from smart card data in Singapore," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Janson, Michael & Levinson, David, 2014. "HOT or not," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 21-32.
    7. Hossan, Md Sakoat & Asgari, Hamidreza & Jin, Xia, 2016. "Investigating preference heterogeneity in Value of Time (VOT) and Value of Reliability (VOR) estimation for managed lanes," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 638-649.
    8. Haghani, Milad & Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Rose, John M. & Oppewal, Harmen & Lancsar, Emily, 2021. "Hypothetical bias in stated choice experiments: Part I. Macro-scale analysis of literature and integrative synthesis of empirical evidence from applied economics, experimental psychology and neuroimaging," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    9. Abulibdeh, Ammar & Zaidan, Esmat, 2018. "Analysis of factors affecting willingness to pay for high-occupancy-toll lanes: Results from stated-preference survey of travelers," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 91-105.
    10. Milad Haghani & Michiel C. J. Bliemer & John M. Rose & Harmen Oppewal & Emily Lancsar, 2021. "Hypothetical bias in stated choice experiments: Part I. Integrative synthesis of empirical evidence and conceptualisation of external validity," Papers 2102.02940, arXiv.org.
    11. Fu, Jianhua & Zhang, Yongqing, 2020. "Valuation of travel time reliability: Considering the traveler's adaptive expectation with an indifference band on daily trip duration," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 337-353.
    12. Seiji S. C. Steimetz, 2009. "White‐Knuckle Externalities," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 304-316, April.
    13. Hongcheng Gan & Yang Bai, 2014. "The effect of travel time variability on route choice decision: a generalized linear mixed model based analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 339-350, March.
    14. Shanjiang Zhu & David Levinson, 2011. "A Portfolio Theory of Route Choice," Working Papers 000096, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    15. Yu, Xiaojuan & van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2023. "Congestion pricing and information provision under uncertainty: Responsive versus habitual pricing," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    16. Krčál, Ondřej & Peer, Stefanie & Staněk, Rostislav & Karlínová, Bára, 2019. "Real consequences matter: Why hypothetical biases in the valuation of time persist even in controlled lab experiments," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    17. Cheng, Qixiu & Liu, Zhiyuan & Lu, Jiawei & List, George & Liu, Pan & Zhou, Xuesong Simon, 2024. "Using frequency domain analysis to elucidate travel time reliability along congested freeway corridors," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    18. Steimetz, Seiji S.C., 2008. "Defensive driving and the external costs of accidents and travel delays," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 703-724, November.
    19. van Loon, Ruben & Rietveld, Piet & Brons, Martijn, 2011. "Travel-time reliability impacts on railway passenger demand: a revealed preference analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 917-925.
    20. Beaud, Mickael & Blayac, Thierry & Stéphan, Maïté, 2016. "The impact of travel time variability and travelers’ risk attitudes on the values of time and reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 207-224.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:209:y:2026:i:c:s096585642600162x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.