Beyond direct flights: higher-order connectivity in China’s international air cargo network

This study analyzes structural dynamics, resilience attributes, and optimization pathways in China’s international air cargo network through a novel higher-order connectivity framework. Combining first-order (direct) and second-order (multi-hop transshipment) metrics, we construct a directed network from real all-cargo flight data (October 2022–June 2024). We evaluate the network’s topological potential by integrating time and capacity quality discounts, thereby capturing nonlinear “foreign airport–Chinese hub–nationwide access” pathways that are critical for identifying key hubs and assessing service resilience under external shocks. Results reveal a distinct divergence between direct and higher-order connectivity rankings, indicating that transshipment capabilities significantly reshape the competitive landscape for overseas airports, particularly enhancing the accessibility of emerging hubs in South Asia and Southeast Asia. High-PageRank domestic hubs such as Guangzhou (CAN), Ezhou Huahu (EHU), and Shenzhen (SZX) act as connectivity multipliers, offsetting geographic disadvantages and strengthening the network’s adaptive capacity by providing alternative routing options when direct links are disrupted. Crucially, we empirically validate the economic mechanism of this network structure: time-series regression analysis confirms that improvements in second-order connectivity significantly drive the growth of international cargo throughput, serving as a vital engine for regional economic development. This finding further suggests that a resilient transshipment network is not only a structural feature of air cargo organization but also an important foundation for integrating non-gateway cities into global supply chains. Furthermore, while recent geopolitical conflicts show limited system-wide impacts, Belt and Road Initiative partnerships spur new connections, and the higher-order network structure demonstrates a buffering effect by maintaining connectivity through indirect pathways under disruption scenarios. Based on these findings, we propose a tiered hub strategy, prioritizing corridor development, domestic-international integration, cargo specialization, and contingency planning, via centrality metrics and entropy-weighted TOPSIS evaluation. The results provide quantitative support for resilience-oriented network optimization, showing how higher-order connectivity can mitigate external shocks such as geopolitical conflict and trade friction by preserving supply chain stability through transshipment substitution. These insights advance air cargo connectivity theory and offer actionable guidance for policymakers and operators in optimizing network efficiency and resilience against supply chain restructuring.