Do intentions translate into use? Transit market evolution and intention-behavior gaps after a new BRT service in Montreal, Canada

This study investigates how transit market profiles evolve and how intentions align with actual behavior following the implementation of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Montreal, Canada. While prior research has focused primarily on ridership trends, this paper adopts a behavioral lens, integrating market segmentation and the intention-behavior gap concept to examine individual-level behavior. Drawing on longitudinal data from the Montreal Mobility Survey, the analysis uses a pre-BRT sample of 578 respondents (2021) and a post-BRT sample of 1882 respondents (2023–2024), including a panel of 209 individuals who responded before and after implementation. Using exploratory factor analysis and weighted k-means clustering, four market profiles were identified both before and after implementation: transit-reliant riders, telecommuter choice riders, walkability-oriented individuals, and car-oriented individuals. While the profile structure was consistent at the aggregate level, panel tracking showed heterogeneous profile stability: car-oriented individuals were most likely to remain in their baseline profile, whereas telecommuter choice riders were most likely to transition to a different profile. A separate multinomial model assessed the intention-behavior gap, revealing that closeness to the infrastructure can influence intention follow-through. The results provide empirical evidence that infrastructure alone is insufficient to ensure adoption and suggest that targeted interventions are necessary to bridge the gap between intention and use. The findings in this study can be of interest to transit agencies and policymakers interested in user-centered public transit planning strategies.