Factors influencing service times for urban deliveries in the United States

Efficient urban logistics systems are crucial for ensuring the timely and reliable delivery of goods, especially with the growth of e-commerce and the increasing frequency of household deliveries. This research investigates the determinants of delivery service time—defined as the time required to deliver the package once the delivery person has arrived at the package’s delivery location—across five U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Austin, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Seattle. It applies parametric duration models and finds that the log-logistic distribution best fits the data across all MSAs, identifying key spatial, socio-economic, temporal, and package-related factors that influence delivery service time. In addition, the Interaction Index is used to identify economic poles in each MSA, enabling a more nuanced understanding of urban spatial structure and its impact on last-mile performance. Results show that proximity to these poles has MSA-specific effects; shorter service times are associated with larger household sizes and lower incomes, while longer times are linked to higher population density, larger packages, higher incomes, and deliveries made during peak hours. Based on these insights, the research provides actionable recommendations for policymakers and practitioners, such as applying freight-efficient land use planning principles, investing in infrastructure improvements that directly support last-mile logistics, and implementing off-hour delivery programs to reduce delays during peak periods. Future research should build on this work by validating socio-economic drivers and exploring additional determinants of delivery service time.