Cleaner skies, greener flights: empirical evidence from China

This study provides the first comprehensive empirical evidence linking local air quality to aviation carbon emissions at the flight-segment level in China. Using a dataset of over 12 million flights and rigorous econometric modeling, we find that poorer air quality at both departure and arrival airports significantly increases carbon emissions, particularly during taxi-out and approach phases. Pollutants such as PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO consistently elevate emissions, while O3 shows an inverse effect. Regional and route-distance heterogeneities are pronounced, with Northeast China most affected during takeoff phase and the West during landing phase. The relationship is more marked under mild pollution, diminishing as stricter controls are imposed in severe pollution. Quantifying these impacts reveals substantial provincial disparities and highlights the externalities of air pollution on aviation. Our findings stress the need for region- and phase-specific emission reduction strategies and support China’s dual-carbon policy by demonstrating that air quality improvements yield measurable co-benefits in aviation decarbonization.