Willingness to pay for voluntary airline carbon offsets and sustainable aviation fuel

While arguing that voluntary carbon offsetting (VCO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will continue to play a vital role in the context of airline decarbonization in the future, this paper reveals “low-hanging-fruit” opportunities for airlines to improve the adoption rate of their VCO programs and policy recommendations to make SAF adoption more realistic today. Using a stated preference choice experiment with 1,001 respondents from Australia and New Zealand, we show the value of offering digital information on the carbon offset project purposes, especially those associated with environmental damage repairments and investments into sustainable energy productions. We further explain heterogeneity in preferences for VCOs through socio-demographic differences in the sample. While our results suggest a continued strong willingness to fly, our estimated willing-to-pay (WTP) values for SAF “book and claim” remains relatively low. We highlight the significant gap between the consumers’ WTP and the actual cost of SAF. This gap represents a critical challenge for the airline industry, particularly in light of upcoming policy mandates for SAF usage (e.g., the UK from 2025). Without additional government support, such mandates may pose substantial risks to both airline viability and consumer mobility. We offer recommendations to inform future policy development and effective airline decarbonization strategies.