Evaluating residents’ travel pattern shifts after the opening of new URT lines: Insights from a changes-in-changes model

This study develops an extended Changes-in-Changes (CIC) framework to investigate the impacts of urban rail transit (URT) line openings on residents’ travel pattern. The extended CIC model allows for analysis of distributional effects across residents with different levels of travel activity, as well as multidimensional interaction effects spanning socio-demographic dimensions, time, and space. Using a case study of Hangzhou, China, the research incorporates longitudinal anonymized mobile phone signaling data. By focusing on residents living within the service catchment areas of newly opened URT stations, the study compares travel behavior before and after the line openings to identify nuanced behavioral shifts. Quantile-effect analysis reveals substantial distributional heterogeneity: low-mobility residents gain disproportionate accessibility benefits, while high-mobility groups optimize efficiency by replacing the long-distance trips with URT-accessible destinations or adopting URT-feeder modes, demonstrating URT’s dual role in reducing exclusion and enhancing efficiency. Temporal patterns reveal divergent adaptation: low-mobility groups initially face commute time increases due to last-mile barriers but later sustain spatial expansion and reverse time trends (with the feeder system improvements), while the high-mobility residents’ spatial contraction diminishes, showing distinct long-term pathways. Spatial and gender disparities reveal URT lines’ equity impacts. Suburban residents show greater improvements in activity radius, commute time, and travel distance than urban-core counterparts, underscoring URT’s role in promoting spatial equity. Urban-core URT benefits are gender-neutral, but suburban men experience significantly greater mobility gains than women due to differing caregiving responsibilities. Surprisingly, the suburban men show no advantage in commute time, likely constrained by persistent car culture. These structural and symbolic barriers collectively sustain transit inequities. Based on the findings, practical guidance is provided for developing targeted URT development strategies that address both spatial and gender disparities.