How does carbon trading price uncertainty affect intermodal transportation network? Insights from a hub seaport

This study addresses the current structural ineffectiveness of freight transportation systems, by focusing on the design of a hub seaport intermodal freight transportation network (IFTN) and considering uncertainties in the carbon trading price. The fuzzy credibility function of the carbon trading price is established based on a triangular fuzzy number, and the fuzzy carbon trading price is clarified using different values associated with an enterprise’s risk preference level. A multi-objective 0–1 programming model is constructed, considering transportation cost, carbon trading cost, and transportation time. An improved NSGA-II based on the ideal point method is designed to solve the model. The effectiveness and efficiency of the modeling and solving methods are demonstrated through numerical experiments for the real-world case of a Chinese hub seaport. Managerial implications and recommendations are presented based on extensive sensitivity analyses. The results highlight the following. (i) Under the influence of carbon trading policy, transport enterprises adopt direct rail or rail-water intermodal transportation. (ii) The objective value of carbon trading cost is inversely proportional to an enterprise’s risk preference level with respect to the carbon trading price. This indicates that an enterprise’s decision-making behavior related to emissions reduction under different risk attitudes is prompted by costs or benefits. (iii) Carbon quotas are unlikely to effectively affect transportation schemes from a modeling perspective, but it is useful to emphasize their effectiveness as an emissions reduction policy instrument. These findings can be applied to accelerate the sustainable transformation and decarbonization efforts of the transport and logistics industry.