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An integrated ordered logit and latent variable model for accident injury severity and risk-taking behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Ortelli, Nicola
  • Lapparent, Matthieu de
  • Varotto, Silvia F.
  • Bierlaire, Michel

Abstract

This study presents a flexible model for risk-taking behavior and accident injury severity. It is specifically designed to evaluate the impact of Via Sicura, a Swiss road safety program, on the severity of accident outcomes. Our proposed model treats the risk-taking behavior of each driver as a latent variable that depends on a number of socioeconomic and contextual factors, and whose manifestation can be measured by means of behavioral indicators. The aggregated risk, a central feature of our framework, represents the combined latent risk-taking behaviors among all drivers within an accident and is successfully identified as explanatory of the severity of injuries sustained by all individuals involved. Our findings reveal that Via Sicura’s repressive measures successfully deter risk-taking behavior among drivers, preventing an estimated 63 fatal, 876 major and 2,303 minor injuries over a ten-year period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ortelli, Nicola & Lapparent, Matthieu de & Varotto, Silvia F. & Bierlaire, Michel, 2025. "An integrated ordered logit and latent variable model for accident injury severity and risk-taking behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s0965856424003781
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104330
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