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The “Gold Rush” in AI and robotics patenting activity. Do innovation systems have a role?

Author

Listed:
  • Guidetti, Giovanni
  • Leoncini, Riccardo
  • Macaluso, Mariele

Abstract

This paper studies patenting trends in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics from 1980 to 2019. We introduce a novel distinction between traditional robotics and robotics embedding AI functionalities. Using patent data and a time-series econometric approach, we examine whether these domains share common long-run dynamics and how their trajectories differ across major innovation systems. Three main findings emerge. First, patenting activity in core AI, traditional robots, and AI-enhanced robots follows distinct trajectories, with AI-enhanced robotics accelerating sharply from the early 2010s. Second, structural breaks occur predominantly after 2010, indicating an acceleration in the technological dynamics associated with AI diffusion. Third, long-run relationships between AI and robotics vary systematically across countries: China exhibits strong integration between core AI and AI-enhanced robots, alongside a substantial contribution from universities and the public sector, whereas the United States displays a more market-oriented patenting structure and weaker integration between AI and robots. Europe, Japan and South Korea show intermediate patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Guidetti, Giovanni & Leoncini, Riccardo & Macaluso, Mariele, 2026. "The “Gold Rush” in AI and robotics patenting activity. Do innovation systems have a role?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:231:y:2026:i:c:s0040162526002829
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124805
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    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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