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How technological progress in robotics, AI, and IT/ICT/IoT reshapes employment: A robust analysis for the United States

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  • Khakbaz, Amir
  • Malmir, Behnam

Abstract

Unemployment is a critical economic, social, and cultural issue, closely monitored by governments and central banks to assess labor market dynamics and economic stability. Shocks to technological sectors—particularly robotics, artificial intelligence, and IT/ICT/IoT— demonstrate significant dynamic associations with employment trends, yet their underlying mechanisms remains complex and debated. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between technological progress and the U.S. unemployment rate, over the period 1990 to 2025, using a robust regression analysis (based on the all-possible-subsets method) and the vector autoregressive model. The validity of the selected models is rigorously tested, and the most efficient models are identified based on key statistical criteria. Results identify innovations in four key variables— ICT Contribution to GDP, Labor Productivity Growth, Cloud Computing Adoption, and Patents —as being highly associated with subsequent fluctuations in unemployment. Findings provide actionable insights into managing technological disruption, balancing innovation with labor market stability, and formulating policies that leverage technology for economic resilience while mitigating employment risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Khakbaz, Amir & Malmir, Behnam, 2026. "How technological progress in robotics, AI, and IT/ICT/IoT reshapes employment: A robust analysis for the United States," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:230:y:2026:i:c:s0040162526002209
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124743
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