IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v215y2025ics0040162525001350.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Patent lifespan prediction and interpreting the key determinants: An application of interpretable machine learning survival analysis approach

Author

Listed:
  • Fu, Zhenkang
  • Zhu, Qinghua
  • Liu, Bingxiang
  • Yan, Chungen

Abstract

While the lifespan of patents is widely regarded as a key indicator for assessing their economic value, its utility in patent valuation is significantly constrained, as it can only be accurately measured at the time of patent expiration. Addressing this limitation necessitates proactively predicting the expected patent lifespan and thoroughly analyzing the complex relationships among various factors that affect patent lifespan. In response, this study constructs an interpretable machine learning framework to predict patent lifespan and explores the factors influencing it. The framework integrates features from five dimensions: technical, legal, market, patentee, and textual. It develops five distinct machine learning survival analysis models and employs post-hoc interpretable machine learning techniques on the optimal model to investigate the intricate relationships between these features and patent lifespan. The results of an empirical study of patents in China's Yangtze River Delta region demonstrate that the machine learning survival analysis approach significantly outperforms the traditional Cox proportional hazards model (Cox-PH) in terms of predictive performance. Furthermore, the post-hoc interpretation technique provides precise descriptions of the effects of various features on patent lifespan, revealing previously unidentified nonlinear relationships. This study holds substantial significance for the research and application of patent valuation, early patent warning, patent pledge financing, and patent management.

Suggested Citation

  • Fu, Zhenkang & Zhu, Qinghua & Liu, Bingxiang & Yan, Chungen, 2025. "Patent lifespan prediction and interpreting the key determinants: An application of interpretable machine learning survival analysis approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:215:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525001350
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162525001350
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124104?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:215:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525001350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.