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Technology foresight in China: Academic studies, governmental practices and policy applications

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  • Li, Na
  • Chen, Kaihua
  • Kou, Mingting

Abstract

Technology foresight has received increasing attention in China among academic scholars and policy makers. This paper, based on an analysis of global technology foresight features, systematically summarizes and discusses academic studies, governmental practices, and policy applications regarding technology foresight in China, associated with bibliometrics, expert interviews, and desk research methods. The evidence of both theoretical studies and practical activities indicates that technology foresight has rapidly developed in China. This development process can be divided into three periods: the exploration, rapid development, and maturation periods. Technology foresight activities in China enable stakeholders to consult with each other, which leads to a technology foresight culture. Further, many problems in developing and planning with science, technology, and innovation can be solved when comprehensive approaches are adopted to conduct technology foresight activities, including large-scale Delphi survey, scenario analysis, technology roadmap, and bibliometrics, among others. Currently, technology foresight is not only an essential instrument, but is also widely applied in China to develop planning and policies regarding science, technology, and innovation activities. Alternatively, the methodology of Chinese technology foresight and its application to science and technology planning must further improve.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Na & Chen, Kaihua & Kou, Mingting, 2017. "Technology foresight in China: Academic studies, governmental practices and policy applications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 246-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:119:y:2017:i:c:p:246-255
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Belton, Ian & Wright, George & Sissons, Aileen & Bolger, Fergus & Crawford, Megan M. & Hamlin, Iain & Taylor Browne Lūka, Courtney & Vasilichi, Alexandrina, 2021. "Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Meng Tao & Muhammad Zahid Nawaz & Shahid Nawaz & Asad Hassan Butt & Hassan Ahmad, 2018. "Users’ acceptance of innovative mobile hotel booking trends: UK vs. PRC," Information Technology & Tourism, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 9-36, December.
    3. Chen, Kaihua & Ren, Zhipeng & Mu, Shijun & Sun, Tara Qian & Mu, Rongping, 2020. "Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Wang, Peijie & Li, Fan, 2019. "China's organization and governance of innovation – A policy foresight perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 304-319.
    5. Sokolov, Alexander & Shashnov, Sergey & Kotsemir, Maxim & Grebenyuk, Anna, 2019. "Quantitative analysis for a better-focused international STI collaboration policy: A case of BRICS," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 221-242.
    6. Wang, Peijie & Li, Fan, 2021. "Science, technology and innovation policy in Russia and China – Mapping and comparisons in objectives, instruments and implementation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    7. Alexander Sokolov & Sergey Shashnov & Maxim Kotsemir, 2021. "From BRICS to BRICS plus: selecting promising areas of S&T Cooperation with developing countries," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(11), pages 8815-8859, November.
    8. Belton, Ian & MacDonald, Alice & Wright, George & Hamlin, Iain, 2019. "Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 72-82.

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