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The difference in foresight using the scanning method between experts and non-experts

Author

Listed:
  • Honda, Hidehito
  • Washida, Yuichi
  • Sudo, Akihito
  • Wajima, Yuichiro
  • Awata, Keigo
  • Ueda, Kazuhiro

Abstract

We examined the factors that produce differences in generating scenarios on the near future using the scanning method. Participants were asked to briefly read (scan) 151 articles about new technology, the latest customs, fashion, social change, value system transition, or emerging social problems, and then to generate three scenarios about the near future based on the articles. We compared the generated scenarios between scanning method experts and non-experts with no prior experience with the scanning method. We found that experts generated more unique scenarios than non-experts did, and that experts and non-experts differed in the diversity of articles referenced when generating scenarios. We discuss the relationship between the present findings and previous findings on divergent thinking.

Suggested Citation

  • Honda, Hidehito & Washida, Yuichi & Sudo, Akihito & Wajima, Yuichiro & Awata, Keigo & Ueda, Kazuhiro, 2017. "The difference in foresight using the scanning method between experts and non-experts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 18-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:119:y:2017:i:c:p:18-26
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.03.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Mauksch, Stefanie & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Gordon, Theodore J., 2020. "Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Jari Lyytimäki & Kirsi-Marja Lonkila & Eeva Furman & Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki & Satu Lähteenoja, 2021. "Untangling the interactions of sustainability targets: synergies and trade-offs in the Northern European context," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3458-3473, March.

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