IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v74y2025icp750-760.html

Systemic, sectoral, and spatial propagation of CO₂ emissions: an inter-regional analysis for the Brazilian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Arcanjo, Gabriel Marcos
  • da Silva, Juliano da Costa
  • Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro

Abstract

This study analyzes the propagation of CO₂ emissions in Brazil through sectoral, spatial, and systemic lenses, using interregional input-output data for 2011 and 2019. A regional typology is constructed based on trade flows and emission intensity relative to gross output. The results show that states in the South and Southeast, with more diversified economies, emit less CO₂ per unit of output. In contrast, emissions in the Central-North are mainly associated with the primary sector. Regions characterized by high emissions and low productive integration are concentrated in ecologically sensitive biomes such as the Amazon, Cerrado, and Atlantic Forest. Although the primary sector has declined in recent years, it remains central to their economic structure, while intermediate areas depend on emission-intensive activities. The growing integration of Brazil’s primary sector into global markets has reinforced these patterns. These findings highlight the sustainability challenges posed by a growth model reliant on land-use change in fragile ecosystems and enduring infrastructure constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Arcanjo, Gabriel Marcos & da Silva, Juliano da Costa & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro, 2025. "Systemic, sectoral, and spatial propagation of CO₂ emissions: an inter-regional analysis for the Brazilian economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 750-760.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:74:y:2025:i:c:p:750-760
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X25000979
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Su, Bin & Ang, B.W. & Li, Yingzhu, 2017. "Input-output and structural decomposition analysis of Singapore's carbon emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 484-492.
    2. Eduardo A. Haddad & Inácio F. Araújo & Rafael Feltran-Barbieri & Fernando S. Perobelli & Ademir Rocha & Karina S. Sass & Carlos A. Nobre, 2024. "Economic drivers of deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 1141-1148, September.
    3. Yunfeng, Yan & Laike, Yang, 2010. "China's foreign trade and climate change: A case study of CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 350-356, January.
    4. J. S·nchez-ChÛliz & R. Duarte, 2003. "Analysing pollution by way of vertically integrated coefficients, with an application to the water sector in Aragon," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 27(3), pages 433-448, May.
    5. Kyle W. Knight & Juliet B. Schor, 2014. "Economic Growth and Climate Change: A Cross-National Analysis of Territorial and Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions in High-Income Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-10, June.
    6. Ning Chang & Chaohui Han, 2022. "Regional CO2 emissions and cross-boundary mitigation potential in China," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 367-382, July.
    7. Zhang, Wencheng & Peng, Shuijun & Sun, Chuanwang, 2015. "CO2 emissions in the global supply chains of services: An analysis based on a multi-regional input–output model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 93-103.
    8. Leroy P. Jones, 1976. "The Measurement of Hirschmanian Linkages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(2), pages 323-333.
    9. Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Michael L. Lahr & Dina N. Elshahawany & Moisés Vassallo, 2016. "Regional analysis of domestic integration in Egypt: an interregional CGE approach," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-33, December.
    10. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los, 1998. "Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 307-324.
    11. Grether, Jean-Marie & Mathys, Nicole A., 2013. "The pollution terms of trade and its five components," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 19-31.
    12. Araújo, Inácio Fernandes de & Jackson, Randall W. & Ferreira Neto, Amir B. & Perobelli, Fernando S., 2020. "European union membership and CO2 emissions: A structural decomposition analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 190-203.
    13. Jeff Tollefson, 2010. "Food: The global farm," Nature, Nature, vol. 466(7306), pages 554-556, July.
    14. Lenzen, Manfred, 2003. "Environmentally important paths, linkages and key sectors in the Australian economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-34, March.
    15. Niklas Höhne & Matthew J. Gidden & Michel Elzen & Frederic Hans & Claire Fyson & Andreas Geiges & M. Louise Jeffery & Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga & Silke Mooldijk & William Hare & Joeri Rogelj, 2021. "Wave of net zero emission targets opens window to meeting the Paris Agreement," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(10), pages 820-822, October.
    16. Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Carlos Alberto Gonçalves Júnior & Thiago Oliveira Nascimento, 2017. "Matriz Interestadual de Insumo-Produto para o Brasil: Uma Aplicação do Método IIOAS," Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (ABER), vol. 11(4), pages 424-446.
    17. José Firmino de Sousa Filho & Gervásio Ferreira dos Santos & Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro, 2021. "Structural changes in the Brazilian economy 1990–2015," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 555-575, October.
    18. Liddle, Brantley, 2018. "Consumption-based accounting and the trade-carbon emissions nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 71-78.
    19. Souza, Gessica & Domingues, Edson & Magalhaes, Aline, 2020. "Regional economic impacts of greenhouse gas emission mitigation policies in Brazilian agriculture: the role of the degraded paste recovery program," Conference papers 333142, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Vale, Vinicius de Almeida, 2015. "The increase in Brazilian household income and its impact on CO2 emissions: Evidence for 2003 and 2009 from input–output tables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 228-239.
    21. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los, 1997. "Analyzing Decomposition Analyses," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: András Simonovits & Albert E. Steenge (ed.), Prices, Growth and Cycles, chapter 6, pages 108-131, Palgrave Macmillan.
    22. Eduardo Rodrigues Sanguinet, 2022. "Regional inequality and CO2 emissions-based trade across value chains networks: a multiscalar analysis from Brazilian states," Regional Studies, Regional Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 135-148, December.
    23. Meng, Bo & Peters, Glen P. & Wang, Zhi & Li, Meng, 2018. "Tracing CO2 emissions in global value chains," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 24-42.
    24. Rutger Hoekstra & Bernhard Michel & Sangwon Suh, 2016. "The emission cost of international sourcing: using structural decomposition analysis to calculate the contribution of international sourcing to CO 2 -emission growth," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 151-167, June.
    25. Cardoso, Abmael S. & Berndt, Alexandre & Leytem, April & Alves, Bruno J.R. & de Carvalho, Isabel das N.O. & de Barros Soares, Luis Henrique & Urquiaga, Segundo & Boddey, Robert M., 2016. "Impact of the intensification of beef production in Brazil on greenhouse gas emissions and land use," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 86-96.
    26. Cansino, José M. & Román, Rocío & Ordóñez, Manuel, 2016. "Main drivers of changes in CO2 emissions in the Spanish economy: A structural decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 150-159.
    27. Carvalho, Terciane Sabadini & Santiago, Flaviane Souza & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro, 2013. "International trade and emissions: The case of the Minas Gerais state — 2005," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 383-395.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ning Chang & Michael L. Lahr, 2016. "Changes in China’s production-source CO 2 emissions: insights from structural decomposition analysis and linkage analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 224-242, June.
    2. Wang, Zhen & Yan, Haoben & Gao, Xue & Liang, Qiaomei & Mi, Zhifu & Liu, Lancui, 2024. "Have consumption-based CO2 emissions in developed countries peaked?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Jiang, Xuemei & Guan, Dabo, 2017. "The global CO2 emissions growth after international crisis and the role of international trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 734-746.
    4. H. Wang & Chen Pan & P. Zhou, 2019. "Assessing the Role of Domestic Value Chains in China’s CO2 Emission Intensity: A Multi-Region Structural Decomposition Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(2), pages 865-890, October.
    5. Duarte, Rosa & Serrano, Ana, 2021. "Environmental analysis of structural and technological change in a context of trade expansion: Lessons from the EU enlargement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Wang, H. & Ang, B.W. & Su, Bin, 2017. "Assessing drivers of economy-wide energy use and emissions: IDA versus SDA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 585-599.
    7. Hua Liao & Celio Andrade & Julio Lumbreras & Jing Tian, 2018. "CO2 Emissions in Beijing: Sectoral Linkages and Demand Drivers," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 113, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    8. Araújo, Inácio Fernandes de & Jackson, Randall W. & Ferreira Neto, Amir B. & Perobelli, Fernando S., 2020. "European union membership and CO2 emissions: A structural decomposition analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 190-203.
    9. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Research on the peak of CO2 emissions in the developing world: Current progress and future prospect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 186-203.
    10. Lu, Guanyu & Sugino, Makoto & Arimura, Toshi H. & Horie, Tetsuya, 2022. "Success and failure of the voluntary action plan: Disaggregated sector decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    11. Xuemei Jiang & Huijuan Wang & Yan Xia, 2020. "Economic structural change, renewable energy development, and carbon dioxide emissions in China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 1345-1362, October.
    12. Ling Li & Ling Tang & Junrong Zhang, 2019. "Coupling Structural Decomposition Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis to Investigate CO 2 Emission Intensity in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-23, June.
    13. Qiuping Li & Sanmang Wu & Qingshi Tu, 2024. "Delineating the embodied CO2 emissions in Canada's exports: Routes, drivers, and paths," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 28(4), pages 901-915, August.
    14. Christos Tsirimokos, 2025. "A Comprehensive Input–Output Analysis Model for Quantifying Environmental Linkages and Leakages: Evidence from Greece," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, June.
    15. Yue-Jun Zhang & Xiao-Juan Bian & Weiping Tan, 2018. "The linkages of sectoral carbon dioxide emission caused by household consumption in China: evidence from the hypothetical extraction method," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1743-1775, June.
    16. Xixuan Guo & Kaixiang Huang & Lanyu Li & Xiaonan Wang, 2022. "Renewable Energy for Balancing Carbon Emissions and Reducing Carbon Transfer under Global Value Chains: A Way Forward," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    17. Wang, H. & Ang, B.W. & Su, Bin, 2017. "Multiplicative structural decomposition analysis of energy and emission intensities: Some methodological issues," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 47-63.
    18. Luis-Antonio López & Mateo Ortiz & Ángela García-Alaminos & María-Ángeles Cadarso, 2025. "Consequences of legislation-based reshoring for EU carbon emissions in global value chains," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(3), pages 298-318, September.
    19. Strohmaier, Rita & Rainer, Andreas, 2013. "On the Eonomic Purpose of General Purpose Technologies: A Combined Classical and Evolutionary Framework," MPRA Paper 45964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Ferrarini, Benno, 2017. "What Accounts for the Growth of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Advanced and Emerging Economies? The Role of Consumption, Technology and Global Supply Chain Participation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 213-223.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:74:y:2025:i:c:p:750-760. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.