The 2013 mass public school closure and firearm violence in Chicago: A quasi-experimental difference-in-differences analysis

School closure continues to be a contentious policy decision in cities around the United States, with opponents emphasizing negative effects of closure on urban neighborhoods. Little research has been done on the association of school closure with firearm violence, a major challenge affecting US cities. We sought to determine the impact of the 2013 Chicago mass public school closure on firearm violence in neighborhoods affected by building vacancy following closure. We used an inverse probability of treatment weighted design to balance treatment and control groups. The study period was from 2010 to 2019. The unit of analysis was an individual school, with the primary exposure being immediate building vacancy. The primary outcome was shootings with secondary outcomes of weapons violations and assaults/battery with a firearm, drawn from administrative data from the Chicago Police Department. School closure was associated with a 9.88% increase in shootings near the school location (95% CI: 3.59-16.99; p = 0.001). Long term building vacancy was associated with a 10.20% increase in shootings near the building location (95% CI, 2.73-18.84, p = 0.005). Secondary outcomes of assaults/battery with a firearm and weapons violations also demonstrated significant increases. These results demonstrate that school building vacancy following closure is associated with an increase in shootings in the surrounding neighborhood. In decisions around school closure, policymakers should consider the multifactorial impacts of closure on communities and potential community-driven productive re-use of space, particularly given closure frequently occurs in already-disinvested neighborhoods.