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A novel integration of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy logic to evaluate drought vulnerability in a semiarid region

Author

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  • Vaz, Leandro Arthur Vieira
  • Filgueira, Hamilcar José Almeida
  • Rosendo, Eliamin Eldan Queiroz
  • da Silva, Richarde Marques
  • Santos, Celso Augusto Guimarães

Abstract

Drought vulnerability remains a critical yet underexplored issue in the Brazilian semiarid region, particularly in Paraíba state. This study introduces a novel methodology that integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Logic to assess drought vulnerability across the region. A script was specifically developed to implement this approach, assigning weights to 20 variables distributed across three key indicators: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. The analysis identified Sumé as the most vulnerable municipality, with a vulnerability index of 0.5792, while Princesa Isabel and Cajazeiras exhibited the lowest vulnerability, both with an index of 0.5000. The integration of AHP and Fuzzy Logic not only quantifies drought vulnerability but also effectively captures uncertainties associated with socioeconomic factors and climatic variability. The findings highlight the robustness of this methodology in supporting decision-making processes for disaster management and prevention, demonstrating its potential applicability in similar contexts worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaz, Leandro Arthur Vieira & Filgueira, Hamilcar José Almeida & Rosendo, Eliamin Eldan Queiroz & da Silva, Richarde Marques & Santos, Celso Augusto Guimarães, 2025. "A novel integration of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy logic to evaluate drought vulnerability in a semiarid region," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s0038012125000709
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102221
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