Quantitative assessment of the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the planting industry from the perspective of marginal abatement costs - Evidence from the main producing areas in the Yangtze River Basin of China

Promoting the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction (PRCR) in the planting industry is a key path to achieving green, low-carbon, and high-quality agricultural development. Although existing studies have focused on PRCR synergistic effects, few have evaluated it from the perspective of marginal abatement cost, and there is currently no research analyzing the driving factors of PRCR synergistic effects specifically in the planting industry. This study uses the non-radial directional distance function to quantitatively assess the PRCR synergistic effects in the main agricultural production areas of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2023, systematically analyzing its temporal and spatial evolution, regional differences, dynamic development characteristics, driving factors, and the paths for synergistic emission reduction. The study finds that: ①Carbon emissions (PCE) and surface source pollution (PSP) show an inverted “U” shape over time, with PRCR synergistic effects fluctuating upward, and the carbon reduction effect being dominant. ②PRCR synergistic effects exhibit spatial heterogeneity, with high values concentrated in the upstream areas and gradually extending to the midstream, while the midstream remains at a low to medium-high level and the downstream remains low over the long term. The marginal abatement cost of joint emission reduction is the highest in the upstream areas. ③Regional differences show a fluctuating convergence trend, with differences mainly attributed to the contribution of hypervariable density, and a clear catch-up effect between regions. Strengthening PSP control in the downstream areas could accelerate convergence. ④PRCR synergistic effects only show stable aggregation at both high and low levels. The PRCR synergistic effects at various levels are relatively stable, especially the carbon reduction effect. ⑤Optimizing planting structures, promoting agricultural technological progress, increasing financial support for agriculture, and advancing urbanization all contribute to enhancing PRCR synergistic effects. The main agricultural production areas of the YRB (especially the upstream) are better suited to use carbon reduction in the planting industry as the main strategy to achieve higher levels of PRCR synergistic effects, while the midstream regions should balance food security, carbon reduction, and surface source pollution control.