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Wind of change for agent decisions and innovation diffusion: The ASPID predictive model for technology adoption

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  • Sáenz-Royo, Carlos
  • Hermoso, Ramón
  • Chiclana, Francisco

Abstract

Innovations are part of human evolution and are essential for survival. However, traditional innovation diffusion models do not contemplate the possibility of innovation failure and focus on imitation social processes that require historical data for their estimation, providing only ex-post information, which limits their usefulness for risk management operations. This paper proposes a more general new model (ASPID: AbS-based Predictive Innovation Diffusion model) focusing on the decisions of agents who exhibit intentional limited rationality (IBR). ASPID provides: i) a greater depth of ex-post analysis than the classical models; ii) ex-ante information on the innovation diffusion process based on the characteristics of the target agents, the quality of the innovation, and the network topology of their relationships; iii) the success probability since innovations can fail. The model's versatility allows it to adapt to any information level, from the most aggregated to the most detailed. Some ex-ante and ex-post examples are presented to support the contribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Sáenz-Royo, Carlos & Hermoso, Ramón & Chiclana, Francisco, 2025. "Wind of change for agent decisions and innovation diffusion: The ASPID predictive model for technology adoption," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:102:y:2025:i:c:s0038012125001685
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102319
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