Does population aging affect the financial vulnerability of rural households in China?

Against the backdrop of continuous changes in population age structure, financial risks faced by rural households arising from a rising old-age dependency ratio have become a practical obstacle to the sustained and stable development of China’s macroeconomy. Using data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) spanning 2013–2019, this study systematically examines the impact of the old-age dependency ratio on financial vulnerability among rural Chinese households, as well as its underlying mechanisms, by employing panel logit models, mediation effect models, and related empirical methods. The findings indicate that an increase in the old-age dependency ratio significantly raises the probability of rural households falling into financial vulnerability, and the results remain robust after addressing endogeneity concerns and conducting robustness checks. This effect is significant across regions and is more evident among households with weaker insurance protection, lower or middle levels of human capital investment, and limited liquid asset holdings. Furthermore, a higher old-age dependency ratio exacerbates financial vulnerability among rural households through reduced digital literacy, reduced financial literacy, increased caregiving burdens, and higher risk aversion. From a micro-level perspective, this study reveals the internal mechanisms through which demographic change affects rural household financial stability, enhances understanding of the formation of financial vulnerability, and provides empirical evidence and theoretical insights for preventing rural financial risks and improving relevant institutional arrangements.