The alchemy of planning cultures: Towards a theory of strategic change

This article presents a theory of strategic change, grounded in empirical findings from the Swedish system of higher education. Foci of interest are "planning cultures", changing under uncertainty and demands. Comparison with prior research indicates that the theory may apply to organizations more generally. Thus, it subsumes previous typologies; its fundamental build-up is compatible with basic principles in established organization theory; and classical results from the literature of organizational transformation correspond to those predicted by the theory. The only case of apparent contradiction, the "threat-rigidity thesis", actually turns out to support it. While integrating earlier results, the theory also generates new and unexpected predictions. For further research and a wider application of the planning culture theory, a number of hypotheses are derived. "Catastrophe theory" -- a mathematical, topological framework for studying change in general -- is used for formalization.