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The impact of political risk on the currencies of emerging markets

Author

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  • dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt Coelho
  • Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus
  • Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of political risk on the exchange rate returns of Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Russia. The results indicate the presence of a risk premium for all currencies. Political risk was observed to negatively impact trade returns for only the Brazilian real, a result of depreciating the exchange rate. This effect was not observed for the other countries analyzed. In Brazil, transitory risk-premium volatility was positively associated with both the VIX index and political risk, indicating that greater global and local political risk increased volatility. Furthermore, local political risk had a more significant impact on risk-premium volatility than global risk.

Suggested Citation

  • dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt Coelho & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo, 2021. "The impact of political risk on the currencies of emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:56:y:2021:i:c:s0275531920309831
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101375
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schlömer, Johnny Barrelli & Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2024. "Near-term forward rate spread and commodity index relationship with real economic activity in Brazil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Zócimo Campos & Juan Tapia Gertosio & Paulina Natalia Gudaris, 2021. "Country Risk Premium: The Case of Chile," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(2), pages 317-344, September.
    3. He, Qing & Liu, Junyi & Yu, Jishuang, 2023. "Dancing with dragon: The RMB and developing economies’ currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate parity; Risk premium; Political risk; Exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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