IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v101y2025ics1059056025003909.html

Investor sentiment and optimizing traditional quantitative investments

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Zheng
  • Li, Wenlin
  • Huang, Jia

Abstract

Recent research highlights the interplay between investor sentiment and stock market dynamics. This study introduces an innovative approach to quantitative trading by integrating technical and fundamental analysis via textual data analysis and machine learning. Specifically, we propose a refined Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator by incorporating a customized investor sentiment trend factor. To assess the efficacy of this integrated methodology, we conducted an empirical analysis, focusing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, which has demonstrated notable short-term volatility over the past year. A rigorous comparative evaluation of trading strategies was undertaken, contrasting performance metrics before and after the integration of the sentiment-enhanced MACD. Our findings reveal that the strategies developed in this study yield substantial improvements in both profitability and the stability of quantitative stock market trading. By offering investors a novel and sophisticated approach to quantitative trading, this study contributes valuable insights and methodologies to the field of financial economics, with potential implications for both academic research and practical investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zheng & Li, Wenlin & Huang, Jia, 2025. "Investor sentiment and optimizing traditional quantitative investments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:101:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025003909
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056025003909
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104227?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    2. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
    3. Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
    4. Juvenal José Duarte & Sahudy Montenegro González & José César Cruz, 2021. "Predicting Stock Price Falls Using News Data: Evidence from the Brazilian Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 311-340, January.
    5. Haigang Zhou & John Geppert & Dongmin Kong, 2010. "An Anatomy of Trading Strategies: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 66-79, March.
    6. Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(4), pages 405-426, December.
    7. Dolaeva, Aishat & Beliaeva, Uliana & Grigoriev, Dmitry & Semenov, Alexander & Rysz, Maciej, 2025. "Analyzing and forecasting P/E ratios using investor sentiment in panel data regression and LSTM models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Christopher J. Neely, 1997. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-38.
    9. Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
    10. R. Rosillo & D. de la Fuente & J. A. L. Brugos, 2013. "Technical analysis and the Spanish stock exchange: testing the RSI, MACD, momentum and stochastic rules using Spanish market companies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1541-1550, April.
    11. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    12. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    13. Schadner, Wolfgang, 2021. "On the persistence of market sentiment: A multifractal fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    14. Chung-Han Hsieh, 2023. "On Data-Driven Drawdown Control with Restart Mechanism in Trading," Papers 2303.02613, arXiv.org.
    15. M. J. Fields, 1931. "Stock Prices: A Problem in Verification," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4, pages 415-415.
    16. Gao, Yang & Zhao, Chengjie & Wang, Yaojun, 2024. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: New evidence from Chinese carbon-neutral stock markets based on multi-source data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 438-450.
    17. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    18. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    19. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    20. Ki-Yeol Kwon & Richard Kish, 2002. "Technical trading strategies and return predictability: NYSE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 639-653.
    21. Stanislaus Maier-Paape, 2015. "Automatic one two three," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 247-260, February.
    22. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    2. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    3. Pereira Reichhardt, Joaquín & Iqbal, Tabassum, 2014. "Investment Decisions: Are we fully-Rational?," MPRA Paper 57686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Trifan, Emanuela, 2004. "Entscheidungsregeln und ihr Einfluss auf den Aktienkurs," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 131, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    5. Ioana-Andreea Boboc & Mihai-Cristian Dinică, 2013. "An Algorithm for Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-11, October.
    6. Jukka Ilomäki, 2016. "Risk-Free Rates And Animal Spirits In Financial Markets," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(03), pages 1-18, September.
    7. Saacke, Peter, 2002. "Technical analysis and the effectiveness of central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 459-479, August.
    8. Guofu Zhou, 2018. "Measuring Investor Sentiment," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 239-259, November.
    9. Jacinta Chan Phooi M’ng & Rozaimah Zainudin, 2016. "Assessing the Efficacy of Adjustable Moving Averages Using ASEAN-5 Currencies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    11. BEN OMRANE, Walid & VAN OPPEN, Hervé, 2004. "The predictive success and profitability of chart patterns in the Euro/Dollar foreign exchange market," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2004035, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    12. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    13. Yang, Junmin & Cao, Zhiguang & Han, Qiheng & Wang, Qiyu, 2019. "Tactical asset allocation on technical trading rules and data snooping," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Trifan, Emanuela, 2004. "Decision Rules and their Influence on Asset Prices," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 37211, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    15. Senol Emir & Hasan Dincer & Umit Hacioglu & Serhat Yuksel, 2016. "Random Regression Forest Model using Technical Analysis Variables: An application on Turkish Banking Sector in Borsa Istanbul (BIST)," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 5(3), pages 85-102, April.
    16. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    17. Andreas Hadjixenophontos & Christos Christodoulou-Volos, 2017. "Predictability of Foreign Exchange Rates with the AR(1) Model," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 1-3.
    18. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
    19. Harris, Richard D.F. & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2009. "A momentum trading strategy based on the low frequency component of the exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1575-1585, September.
    20. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Shefrin, Hersh, 2014. "Technical analysis and individual investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 487-511.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:101:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025003909. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.