Integrating scenarios, policies, and pathways for effective climate policy analysis: An extended concept and analysis framework

Achieving the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature goals requires robust climate policy scenarios to evaluate mitigation pathways and policy effectiveness. However, existing research is fragmented, with inconsistencies in scenario development, policy formulation, and model assumptions, limiting its utility for policy design. This study systematically reviews the literature on climate policy scenarios, identifying key sources of uncertainty and proposing an integrated “Scenario-Policy-Pathway” analytical framework. This framework clarifies the relationships between climate policies and temperature targets by identifying the types, components, and construction logic of climate policy scenarios, and emphasizing low-carbon policy as the primary driver of mitigation pathways. It highlights how low-carbon policies instruments influence the timing of implementation, incentivize specific technologies, and embed equity principles into scenario design, thereby improving the interpretability of modeled trajectories. By synthesizing multi-scenario carbon emission forecasts and empirical Chinese case studies, this framework shows strong potential for policy simulation and pathway analysis support. This study provides a comprehensive and powerful tool for climate policy analysis, bridging research and implementation to support global climate objectives.