Energy transition governance models and uncertainty: Comparative examination of the World Energy Council ETI framework

As nations transition towards a more carbon neutral future, energy security emerges as one of a trilemma of global challenges, alongside environmental sustainability and energy equity. The World Energy Council (WEC) Energy Transition Index (ETI) is widely used (presently 126 countries) but reliability questions persist. Uncertainties (stochastic and ontic), including interdependencies and differentiated goals and values among nations, undermine reliability if not validity. Employing Šprajc et al.’s (2019) study as a methodological comparator, we deploy a more fine-grained analysis of the WEC ETI 2024 dataset, using PCA and Cronbach's Alpha to measure internal consistency and overall reliability. We find three primary factors as significant to transition: energy equity & governance, energy security, environmental sustainability, with country context dissolved. This represents a structural change to the ETI typology, and more internally consistent and reliable. Our results suggest policy makers re-evaluate how they use the ETI to inform policy decisions regarding energy transition. For example, our model draws attention to strong interdependencies among variables constituting energy equity & governance. Here, policy decisions must consider the effect of those decisions on CO2 emissions and the availability of uninterruptible energy supply. There is also a strong national security incentive of investing in energy efficiency (production and consumption). Further, developing diversity of energy sources includes taking a more sophisticated approach to using carbon-based energy rather than setting unrealistic goals for its total elimination. Missing from the WEC ETI is the need to take account of likely increased use of materials to support renewable energy strategies.