The employment impacts of China's power system transition: A supply chain perspective

Focusing on the social employment issue within the just transition, this paper applies input-output analysis and synthetic industry employment multiplier method to explore the impacts of the scale and structure of formal and informal employment in China's low-carbon transition of the power sector from four aspects of equipment manufacturing, construction and installation, operation and maintenance, and fuel supply in the supply chain of power production activities. We find that wind power and photovoltaic energy can create more job opportunities that can offset the losses caused by the coal phaseout during the transition. The employment mismatch between fossil energy job loss and non-fossil energy job creation exists in the four links of the power production supply chain. Furthermore, in the process of fossil energy formal employment and informal employment transferring to non-fossil energy sector, there will be sectoral professional mismatch of employment groups. The employment mismatch in terms of timing and links of the transition is more prominent under the 100 % non-fossil scenario, and the losses of formal and informal employment of fossil energy are even greater, making the transfer and resettlement more challenging. Consequently, in the pursuit of a low-carbon transition of the power sector, efforts should be made to promote the sustainable and stable advancement of non-fossil energy, design a transition path that coordinates environmental, economic, and social development, and thoroughly consider the potential mismatches between production activities and employment groups arising from the transition pathway to propel a just transition of the power sector.