Method based on optimized tendencies to evaluate the impact of the introduction of solar and wind energy sources in energy systems

Fossil fuels continue to dominate global energy use but are a major source of GHG-emissions driving climate change. This makes the transition to clean, carbon-free energy sources increasingly urgent. The introduction of solar and wind sources is an essential step toward decarbonization not only because their costs are steadily falling but also because they are among the most widely available local energy resources in many regions around the world. However, these energy sources cannot always meet demand, as their production depends on the intensity of solar radiation and wind. Due to this intermittency, they must be supplemented by energy storage systems or/and by conventional, controllable sources that can adjust their output to follow fluctuations in demand. The characteristics of the backup energy needed to compensate for the intermittency of solar and wind energy vary considerably depending on the share of these sources in the grid, both in terms of average load and peak load. This article analyses how these shifting needs impact the cost and distribution of generation technologies, especially in systems that lack energy storage. It presents the development of a method capable of accounting for this while managing many scenarios of increasing introduction of intermittent energy into the mix, and several indicators of interest for stakeholders are needed. The energy mix for each scenario is determined by minimizing energy production costs. Two regions—Grand-Est in France and Cuba—are examined.