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Policy instruments in the development of electricity generation from renewable energies in Iran: Model predictive control approach

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  • Alipourian, Masoomeh
  • Samadi, Ali Hussein
  • Safavi, Ali Akbar
  • Hadian, Ebrahim
  • Ostovar, Fatemeh

Abstract

This study investigates how policy instruments—non-renewable energy (NRE) generation, energy subsidies (SUB), renewable power plant capacity (CPP), technical cooperation grants (TCG), and foreign direct investment (FDI)—can jointly support renewable electricity development in Iran using a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm with a 2030 target horizon. The results show that achieving a 20% renewable share in electricity consumption alongside a 2% gross domestic product (GDP) growth is feasible under realistic constraints. These constraints include limiting annual NRE growth to 10% and CPP growth to 25%, with FDI bounded by international sanctions. A gradual approach, with equal annual steps of 10% in key variables—electricity consumption, RE generation, CO2 emissions, and GDP— enables steady progress toward these objectives. By incorporating country-specific geopolitical constraints, the model provides a realistic roadmap for RE development, distinguishing it from frameworks applied in regions with unrestricted foreign investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Alipourian, Masoomeh & Samadi, Ali Hussein & Safavi, Ali Akbar & Hadian, Ebrahim & Ostovar, Fatemeh, 2026. "Policy instruments in the development of electricity generation from renewable energies in Iran: Model predictive control approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:273:y:2026:i:c:s0960148126008906
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2026.126064
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