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Scenario-based long-term planning for a 100% renewable energy system at the regional scale

Author

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  • Shoaei, Mersad
  • Noorollahi, Younes
  • Yousefi, Hossein

Abstract

Recently, energy researchers and policymakers have focused on creating and adopting renewable energy sources. Renewable energies are considered free and infinite worldwide. Many environmental challenges created by the growing usage of fossil fuels due to technological growth have prompted researchers to accelerate the transition from fossil to renewable energy. Global warming and air pollution, two of the biggest issues, have influenced human life in environmental, social, and economic ways. However, fulfilling 100% of energy demand with renewable sources is still innovative and underexplored. In areas far from energy and fuel (or heat) distribution networks, this idea has been studied intensively, but regional or provincial scales present issues. This study planned a regional energy system for 2030, 2040, and 2050 using EnergyPLAN. This article uses scenario-based planning to account for energy system uncertainties using 9 scenarios. We also evaluated 2030, 2040, and 2050 scenarios utilizing energy system cost and emissions. The results suggest that the province's energy system may be operated in six ways to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2040 and 2050. Using the province's renewable energy resources to their full capability can save system costs by 15%.

Suggested Citation

  • Shoaei, Mersad & Noorollahi, Younes & Yousefi, Hossein, 2026. "Scenario-based long-term planning for a 100% renewable energy system at the regional scale," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:271:y:2026:i:c:s0960148126008128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2026.125986
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