A chronological 8760-hour production simulation for optimizing the operation of integrated wind-solar-pumped storage-thermal power systems

Long-term disparities in wind and solar generation fluctuations challenge traditional provincial power dispatch methods relying on monthly and typical-day balance analyses. They often fail to capture prominent risks of power shortages and renewable energy curtailment. This paper proposes an 8760-h chronological production simulation method for provincial grids with high renewable energy penetration. The hierarchical aggregation and stochastic reconstruction are coupled to characterize the chronological volatility of renewable generation. A bi-level model coordinates flexible power sources: the upper layer minimizes the residual load's peak-to-valley difference by optimizing pumped storage, while the lower layer balances this load through thermal unit commitment to minimize total operating costs and penalty costs. An iterative simulation and a dual-scale aggregation method are introduced to quantify the regulation capacity of pumped storage and drastically reduce thermal unit commitment optimization dimensionality. Applied in a Northeast China grid with 23,870 MW of renewable capacity, the method increased pumped storage peak-to-valley electricity by 3.7%, while reducing power shortage risk by 99.9% and curtailment risk by 92.2% compared to traditional methods. Results show power shortage decreases as the load interruption penalty coefficient increases with generation costs rising slowly, and a coefficient of 9 CNY/kWh is recommended to meet supply assurance requirements.