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Trajectory-driven green hydrogen transition for heavy-duty trucks: A well-to-wheel decarbonization analysis in the Pearl River Delta, China

Author

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  • Cui, Xuezhu
  • Pan, Yueling
  • Gao, Feng
  • Li, Shaoying
  • Mu, Quan

Abstract

Heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) pose a critical decarbonization challenge in China amid growing logistics demand. This study proposes a Well-to-Wheel (WTW) supply-demand coupling framework, based on HDT trajectory data to explore the diesel-to-green hydrogen transition for HDTs in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). By leveraging the Expressway-importance metric to identify emission hotspots, three hierarchical deployment scenarios are designed to address the 41.8% supply shortage for full transition under the current installed capacity. These scenarios achieve WTW carbon reductions of 8.7%, 14%, and 19%, with their hydrogen demand remaining within actual supply. Economic analysis confirms the rationality of the scenarios with annual costs ranging from 145.39 to 329.91 million yuan. This scenario-specific, data-supported method verify the dual rationality of phased green hydrogen HDT deployment and economic cost, providing quantitative basis for corridor prioritization and an actionable decarbonization roadmap. This study offers replicability for offshore wind-rich coastal regions, advancing regional HDT low-carbon transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Cui, Xuezhu & Pan, Yueling & Gao, Feng & Li, Shaoying & Mu, Quan, 2026. "Trajectory-driven green hydrogen transition for heavy-duty trucks: A well-to-wheel decarbonization analysis in the Pearl River Delta, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:267:y:2026:i:c:s0960148126005884
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2026.125763
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