Assessment of power generation and water conservation potentials of floating photovoltaic systems on China's lakes and reservoirs: Historical period and future scenario

Floating photovoltaics (FPV) represent an emerging technology with significant development potential. This study forecasts the power generation and water conservation potentials of FPV in China during the historical period (1951–2024) and future scenario (2025–2100). It further conducts grey correlation analysis between power generation/water conservation potentials and meteorological factors across both periods to evaluate the importance of influencing elements. The results indicate: (1) From historical periods to future scenarios, the annual average power generation potential of China's inland lakes and reservoirs increased from 1.0 × 103 TWh to 1.2 × 103 TWh, representing a growth rate of 21.1%. Conversely, the annual average water conservation potential decreased from 2.1 × 109 m3 to 1.9 × 109 m3, reflecting a growth rate of −8.3%. (2) The primary meteorological factors influencing power generation potential are ranked as shortwave radiation, air temperature and wind speed, while the top two factors affecting water conservation potential are wind speed and longwave radiation. This study elucidates the long-term evolution of China's reservoir FPV development potential, providing a basis for the promotion of FPV.