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Special point-based fuzzy multi-energy flow analysis of integrated energy systems considering the correlation of uncertain variables

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng, J.H.
  • Liu, Zhijun
  • Xiao, Wenting
  • Zhou, Yuekuan
  • Wu, Q.H.

Abstract

With an increasing proportion of renewable energy connected to the integrated energy systems (IES), the level of uncertainty in IES grows significantly. Furthermore, Uncertain variables are correlated with each other and they are not in an idealized independent state. Consequently, This paper introduces affine transformation based on the parallelogram model to solve the problem of fuzzy variable correlation. Further, the fuzzy variable model is simplified by drawing on the idea of point estimation method. Then, this paper proposes a special point-based fuzzy multi-energy flow calculation method (SPFM) to solve the multi-energy flow of IES. Simulation results show that affine transformation based on the parallelogram model can quickly and accurately decorrelate the fuzzy variables. In addition, compared with the fuzzy multi-energy flow algorithm based on Monte Carlo Simulation method (MCS) and incremental method (increment FM), the method proposed in this paper has significant advantages in terms of completeness, accuracy, conservatism and computational efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng, J.H. & Liu, Zhijun & Xiao, Wenting & Zhou, Yuekuan & Wu, Q.H., 2026. "Special point-based fuzzy multi-energy flow analysis of integrated energy systems considering the correlation of uncertain variables," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:264:y:2026:i:c:s096014812600385x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2026.125560
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