IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v262y2026ics0960148126002429.html

Dynamic heat extraction and development optimization of enhanced geothermal system based on forward simulation and data-driven methods-A review

Author

Listed:
  • Mu, Shuxing
  • Zhao, Lianheng
  • Zhang, Ao

Abstract

Achieving efficient development of hot dry rock (HDR) facilitates the transition of the energy structure from high-carbon to low-carbon and even carbon-free, accelerates the substitution process for fossil fuels, and provides robust support for the green transformation of the global energy system. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of mechanistic models (forward simulation), data-driven models, mechanism and data-driven models, and development scheme optimization for HDR heat extraction. Within mechanistic models, we focus on elaborating the research status and development suggestions for discrete fracture network (DFN) models. Subsequently, the research status of data-driven models, as well as mechanistic and data-driven models, in the field of HDR development is thoroughly discussed. Regarding HDR development scheme optimization, a systematic evaluation is conducted from two aspects: well pattern deployment and production systems. Finally, development prospects are highlighted from three key areas: fundamental theories of HDR heat extraction, mechanism and data-driven models, and HDR development scheme optimization. This paper aims to establish a theoretical and methodological foundation for realizing the efficient exploitation of HDR geothermal resources and accelerating the intelligent transformation of geothermal development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mu, Shuxing & Zhao, Lianheng & Zhang, Ao, 2026. "Dynamic heat extraction and development optimization of enhanced geothermal system based on forward simulation and data-driven methods-A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:262:y:2026:i:c:s0960148126002429
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2026.125417
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148126002429
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2026.125417?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xie, Kun & Nian, Yong-Le & Cheng, Wen-Long, 2018. "Analysis and optimization of underground thermal energy storage using depleted oil wells," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1006-1016.
    2. Han, Bowen & Wang, Shuhong & Zhang, Ze & Wang, Ye, 2024. "Numerical simulation of geothermal reservoir thermal recovery of heterogeneous discrete fracture network-rock matrix system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    3. Zheng, Shuai & Li, Sanbai & Zhang, Dongxiao, 2021. "Fluid and heat flow in enhanced geothermal systems considering fracture geometrical and topological complexities: An extended embedded discrete fracture model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 163-178.
    4. Lu, Shyi-Min, 2018. "A global review of enhanced geothermal system (EGS)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2902-2921.
    5. Niu, Wente & Sun, Yuping & Zhang, Xiaowei & Lu, Jialiang & Liu, Hualin & Li, Qiaojing & Mu, Ying, 2023. "An ensemble transfer learning strategy for production prediction of shale gas wells," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    6. Zhang, Jiansong & Liu, Yongsheng & Lv, Jianguo & Gao, Wenlong, 2024. "The flow and heat transfer characteristics of supercritical mixed-phase CO2 and N2 in a 3D self-affine rough fracture," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    7. Wang, Anlun & Chen, Yinghe & Wei, Jianguang & Li, Jiangtao & Zhou, Xiaofeng, 2023. "Experimental study on the mechanism of five point pattern refracturing for vertical & horizontal wells in low permeability and tight oil reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    8. Liang, Xu & Xu, Tianfu & Chen, Jingyi & Jiang, Zhenjiao, 2023. "A deep-learning based model for fracture network characterization constrained by induced micro-seismicity and tracer test data in enhanced geothermal system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. Wang, Nanzhe & Chang, Haibin & Kong, Xiang-Zhao & Zhang, Dongxiao, 2023. "Deep learning based closed-loop well control optimization of geothermal reservoir with uncertain permeability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 379-394.
    10. Wang, Zhipeng & Ning, Zhengfu & Guo, Wenting & Zhan, Jie & Zhang, Yuanxin, 2024. "Study of fracture monitoring and heat extraction evaluation in geothermal reservoir modified by abandoned well pattern: Numerical models and case studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    11. Li, Jiangtao & Wei, Jianguang & Chen, Yinghe & Wang, Anlun & Zhou, Xiaofeng, 2024. "Analysis of asynchronous/inter-fracture injection-production mechanism under the condition of five-spot vertical and horizontal well combination in low permeability oil reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    12. Mu, Shuxing & Zhang, Ao & Zhao, Lianheng, 2024. "Investigation on the heat extraction performance considering a rough fracture network in heterogeneous reservoirs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    13. Cao, Wenjiong & Huang, Wenbo & Chen, Juanwen & Li, Zhibin & Jiang, Fangming, 2023. "Numerical study on the heat extraction performance of enhanced geothermal systems with a well-fracture-reservoir combined model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 370-380.
    14. Du, Jian & Zheng, Jianqin & Liang, Yongtu & Xu, Ning & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Wang, Bohong & Liao, Qi & Varbanov, Petar Sabev & Shahzad, Khurram & Ali, Arshid Mahmood, 2023. "Deeppipe: A two-stage physics-informed neural network for predicting mixed oil concentration distribution," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    15. Santos, L. & Dahi Taleghani, A. & Elsworth, D., 2022. "Repurposing abandoned wells for geothermal energy: Current status and future prospects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 1288-1302.
    16. Li, Yuwei & Peng, Genbo & Du, Tong & Jiang, Liangliang & Kong, Xiang-Zhao, 2024. "Advancing fractured geothermal system modeling with artificial neural network and bidirectional gated recurrent unit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 372(C).
    17. Asai, Pranay & Panja, Palash & McLennan, John & Moore, Joseph, 2018. "Performance evaluation of enhanced geothermal system (EGS): Surrogate models, sensitivity study and ranking key parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 184-195.
    18. Pan, Shu-Yuan & Gao, Mengyao & Shah, Kinjal J. & Zheng, Jianming & Pei, Si-Lu & Chiang, Pen-Chi, 2019. "Establishment of enhanced geothermal energy utilization plans: Barriers and strategies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 19-32.
    19. Xue, Zhenqian & Ma, Haoming & Wei, Yizheng & Wu, Wei & Sun, Zhe & Chai, Maojie & Zhang, Chi & Chen, Zhangxin, 2024. "Integrated technological and economic feasibility comparisons of enhanced geothermal systems associated with carbon storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    20. Shi, Yu & Song, Xianzhi & Song, Guofeng, 2021. "Productivity prediction of a multilateral-well geothermal system based on a long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron combinational neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    21. Chen, Guodong & Jiao, Jiu Jimmy & Jiang, Chuanyin & Luo, Xin, 2024. "Surrogate-assisted level-based learning evolutionary search for geothermal heat extraction optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    22. Gao, Xuefeng & Zhang, Yanjun & Cheng, Yuxiang & Yu, Ziwang & Hu, Zhongjun & Huang, Yibin, 2023. "Heat extraction performance of fractured geothermal reservoirs considering aperture variability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    23. Wang, Yanwen & Han, Xiangxin & Jiang, Xiumin, 2024. "A surrogate shale oil model based on a multi-objective fusion adaptive optimization considering its pyrolysis characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    24. Yan, Bicheng & Gudala, Manojkumar & Hoteit, Hussein & Sun, Shuyu & Wang, Wendong & Jiang, Liangliang, 2024. "Physics-informed machine learning for noniterative optimization in geothermal energy recovery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    25. Asif Mehmood & Jun Yao & Dongyan Fan & Kelvin Bongole & Junrong Liu & Xu Zhang, 2019. "Potential for heat production by retrofitting abandoned gas wells into geothermal wells," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, August.
    26. Yilmaz, Ceyhun & Koyuncu, Ismail, 2021. "Thermoeconomic modeling and artificial neural network optimization of Afyon geothermal power plant," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1166-1181.
    27. Soltani, M. & Moradi Kashkooli, Farshad & Souri, Mohammad & Rafiei, Behnam & Jabarifar, Mohammad & Gharali, Kobra & Nathwani, Jatin S., 2021. "Environmental, economic, and social impacts of geothermal energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mu, Shuxing & Zhang, Ao & Zhao, Lianheng, 2024. "Investigation on the heat extraction performance considering a rough fracture network in heterogeneous reservoirs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. Li, Yuwei & Peng, Genbo & Du, Tong & Jiang, Liangliang & Kong, Xiang-Zhao, 2024. "Advancing fractured geothermal system modeling with artificial neural network and bidirectional gated recurrent unit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 372(C).
    3. Madani, Mohammad & Sharifi, Mohammad, 2025. "Multi-faceted numerical investigation into heat extraction performance of horizontal doublet fractured geothermal reservoirs with carbon dioxide working fluid," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    4. Chen, Jinfan & Zhao, Zhihong & Wang, Jiacheng, 2025. "A time-series forecasting model-based optimization approach for well-doublet system in geothermal reservoirs under geological uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(C).
    5. Xue, Zhenqian & Zhang, Kai & Zhang, Chi & Ma, Haoming & Chen, Zhangxin, 2023. "Comparative data-driven enhanced geothermal systems forecasting models: A case study of Qiabuqia field in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    6. Qiao, Mingzheng & Jing, Zefeng & Feng, Chenchen & Li, Minghui & Chen, Cheng & Zou, Xupeng & Zhou, Yujuan, 2024. "Review on heat extraction systems of hot dry rock: Classifications, benefits, limitations, research status and future prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    7. Ojaghi, Hamed & Shahin, Matin & Simjoo, Mohammad & Chahardowli, Mohammad, 2025. "Repurposing abandoned oil and gas wells for geothermal energy extraction: A review of concepts, challenges, and opportunities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PC).
    8. Meng, Nan & Xu, Wenyuan & He, Kelun & Gao, Xiang, 2025. "A novel multi-scale fully coupled method for simulation and lifecycle performance optimization of enhanced geothermal systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    9. Zheng, Jun & Li, Peng & Dou, Bin & Fan, Tao & Tian, Hong & Lai, Xiaotian, 2022. "Impact research of well layout schemes and fracture parameters on heat production performance of enhanced geothermal system considering water cooling effect," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    10. Wang, Zhipeng & Ning, Zhengfu & Guo, Wenting & Zhan, Jie & Zhang, Yuanxin, 2024. "Study of fracture monitoring and heat extraction evaluation in geothermal reservoir modified by abandoned well pattern: Numerical models and case studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    11. Linkai Li & Xiao Guo & Ming Zhou & Gang Xiang & Ning Zhang & Yue Wang & Shengyuan Wang & Arnold Landjobo Pagou, 2021. "The Investigation of Fracture Networks on Heat Extraction Performance for an Enhanced Geothermal System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    12. Chen, Ziming & Xiao, Fei & Fan, Liming & Niu, Zihao & Liu, Xiaolong & Yan, Yong & Xu, Wenshuai & Han, Lei & Yang, Lizhong, 2026. "Development and techno-economic analysis of an innovative U-shaped geothermal system with artificial geyser," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    13. Xu, Maoyan & Yang, Xianyu & Dai, Zhaokai & Wang, Ren & Wang, Jianlong & Xie, Jingyu & Liu, Mengjuan & Shi, Yanping & Chen, Shuya & Xue, Man & Cai, Jihua & Jiang, Guosheng, 2024. "Experimental research of convective heat transfer between nanofluids and high-temperature dense granite in deep geothermal reservoirs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    14. Zhao, Jiale & Li, Zijun & Xu, Yu & Chen, Yin, 2025. "An integrated mine geothermal extraction and cooling system based on the holistic space utilization concept of mine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    15. Yu, Ruyang & Zhang, Kai & Ramasubramanian, Brindha & Jiang, Shu & Ramakrishna, Seeram & Tang, Yuhang, 2024. "Ensemble learning for predicting average thermal extraction load of a hydrothermal geothermal field: A case study in Guanzhong Basin, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    16. Liu, Quan & Rioseco, Ernesto Meneses & Weiland, Finn & Huang, Mu & Pärisch, Peter & Ptak, Thomas, 2025. "A surrogate-based computational framework for optimizing thermal strategies in large multi-subsystem borehole heat exchanger sites," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    17. Evangeline, S. Ida & Darwin, S., 2025. "The role of carbon dioxide in enhancing geothermal energy: A review of current developments and future potential," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    18. Han, Bowen & Wang, Shuhong & Zhang, Ze & Wang, Ye, 2024. "Numerical simulation of geothermal reservoir thermal recovery of heterogeneous discrete fracture network-rock matrix system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    19. Harshini, R.D.G.F. & Chaudhuri, A. & Ranjith, P.G, 2024. "Harnessing the heat below: Efficacy of closed-loop systems in the cooper basin, Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    20. Lin, David T.W. & Hsieh, Jui Ching & Shih, Bo Yen, 2019. "The optimization of geothermal extraction based on supercritical CO2 porous heat transfer model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1162-1171.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:262:y:2026:i:c:s0960148126002429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.