Multi-agent-based modeling of stakeholder dynamics in renewable energy markets: Towards enhanced policy-making and sustainable energy transition

To address climate change and promote renewable energy (RE), a comprehensive understanding of decision-making and interactions among different stakeholders, including the government, utility companies, and business and residential sectors, is pivotal. This study proposes a multi-agent-based model to simulate the behaviors and interactions of these stakeholders, focusing on solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption under the Hong Kong Climate Action Plan 2030+ (HKCAP 2030+). The projection horizon extends to 2050, with milestones at 2035 and 2050 following HKCAP 2030+. The simulation results indicate that by 2050: (i) coal consumption significantly falls by 99.46% and natural gas consumption rises by 69.18%; (ii) RE installed capacity increases from 362.34 MW to 2365.99 MW; (iii) per capita carbon emissions decrease from 4.06 to 2.04 tonnes; and (iv) cumulative PV installed capacity reaches 931 MW, accounting for 2.64% of the electricity supply. These results suggest that HKCAP 2030+ mitigation targets are achievable under a business-as-usual pathway. However, meeting long-term goals, including carbon neutrality by 2050, will require additional strategic policy interventions, such as accelerating the cleaner energy transition, increasing investment in RE infrastructure, and expanding solar PV adoption, as relying solely on existing policies is insufficient to facilitate further RE development beyond 2030.