Projected increases in wave energy magnitude and variability in the Yellow and Bohai Seas under a high-emission climate scenario

This study investigates changes in wave energy magnitude and variability in the Yellow and Bohai Seas under a high-emission future climate scenario. Future wave conditions are simulated using a spectral wave model driven by wind fields from a high-resolution global circulation model. The analysis delves into spatiotemporal variations in wave energy, along with its availability and stability. Results indicate a general increasing trend in annual mean wave energy throughout the 21st century, especially in the southern Yellow Sea. The projected increase is characterized by a shift toward more frequent high-energy, accompanied by a reduction in low-energy, short-period waves. Assessing wave energy exploitability suggests increasing available resources in nearshore regions, particularly south of the Shandong Peninsula. However, wave energy stability is projected to decline, indicated by increasing monthly and seasonal variability. On monthly and seasonal scales, wave energy tends to decrease in October, December, and January, especially in the Bohai Sea, while increasing at varied rates in other months. Wave energy generally peaks in winter with relatively low variance and reaches a minimum in summer with high variability. These findings provide quantitative insights to support the planning and optimization of regional wave energy development under future climate change.