Global climate risk and its implication for photovoltaic power generation

Renewable energy use is a key means of responding to global climate change, ensuring energy security, and achieving a sustainable future. However, climate risk has introduced significant uncertainty into this transition, particularly for photovoltaic (PV) power generation. To address this, we utilize climate model simulations to calculate a Climate Risk Index (CRI) and quantify the long-term impact of climate risk on global PV power generation under different emission scenarios. Climate risk has exhibited a significant upward trend, with high-risk areas initially being concentrated in low-income countries, but gradually spreading worldwide and becoming increasingly evident in high-income regions. Furthermore, we find that a one-unit increase in the CRI leads to an approximately 0.3 % decrease in the PV generation potential. Scenario-based projections indicate that global climate risk will increase by 1.71 times by 2100 under current emission trajectories. Moreover, temporal heterogeneity analysis reveals that the response of PV to climate risk was most pronounced in the near future (2026–2050). In addition, income-based analysis reveals that the PV potential is more sensitive to climate risk in high-income countries. These findings reveal the long-term threat of climate risk to renewable energy and the unequal vulnerability faced by countries at different income levels.